18 Apr The conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine – a global disruption in the making
As Russia heralded its so called ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, the overall belligerence forced millions of citizens scurrying to safety in underground rail stations and other buildings and fleeing to neighboring countries. The conflict has already caused thousands of civilian casualties and destruction of critical infrastructure across Ukraine. The ensuing humanitarian catastrophe has made the recent Afghan crisis seem pale in comparison.
By the second week of April, more than 4.6 million refugees had fled the country, making this the fastest growing refugee crisis since World War II. To put this in perspective, by June 2021 the total number of Ukrainian refugees and asylum seekers globally were just over 53,000. UNHCR estimates suggest a further 7.1 million people have been displaced internally within Ukraine, while the UNICEF says that almost 55 children are fleeing Ukraine every single minute – that’s nearly one child every second.
As the exodus continued to grow by the day, bordering Eastern European nations – especially Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Moldova – put up an almost unbelievable act in absorbing and managing the refugee influx. The EU has already granted Ukrainian refugees a blanket right to stay and work across its 27 member nations for up to three years. They are also entitled to receive social welfare and access to housing, medical treatment, and schools.
But this compassionate show of solidarity is not without its share of financial burden. The EU has already budgeted an additional €3.5 billion ($3.8 billion) support for EU countries this year. Countries taking refugees more than 1% of their population in the first month of the conflict can claim 45% of the total fund. In fact, independent economic estimates have pegged the total cost of hosting Ukrainian refugees for the EU at over €40 billion. This estimate assumes that the total number of refugees from Ukraine to the EU will be 5.7 million and that two-thirds of them will require state support for nine months on average. EU countries will receive an additional €3.5 billion ($3.8 billion) support from the EU budget to host Ukrainian refugees this year. Those welcoming more refugees than 1% of their population in the first month of the crisis can claim 45% of the total fund.
Amidst this sudden and urgent scrambling of resources and efforts, Poland seems to be taking the bulk of the brunt. About one in 10 people in Poland is now Ukrainian. The populations of major cities – Warsaw and Wrocław – have grown by about 15%. The nation is offering free public transport, a one-time 300zl (£55) payment, and even registration for social security to Ukrainian refugees. A new law in Poland allows Ukrainian refugees to stay in the country legally for at least 18 months and offers 40zl (£7) per day to those who host them. This concerted response will require Poland to spend nearly 3% of its GDP this year. The country also expects patient numbers to rise by 10% or more this year, especially given the high probabilities of psychological problems arising from the traumatic experience.
Romania has enacted a new Temporary Protection Act which allows Ukrainian refugees the right to stay in Romania for up to one year, with provisions to be extended by a maximum of two sixth-month periods. Even Slovakia, a country which was typically averse to refugee influx (it had rejected the redistribution of refugees during the 2015 Syrian crisis and even sued the EU), has metamorphosed into an amicable neighbor and has taken in more than 300k refugees under a special asylum regimen set up for Ukrainians. Ukrainians can also enter Slovakia without a visa for 90 days, and the country is also offering them easier access to healthcare, the education system, and the labor market.
Ireland too has already taken in more than 21,000 Ukrainian refugees, with the army assisting the Irish Red Cross in contacting more than 24,000 Irish citizens who have pledged accommodation for refugees.
In contrast, a delayed and lackluster response by the UK has come under significant criticism – both from within and across Europe. It initially launched a family visa scheme for Ukrainians who have an immediate or extended family member in the UK. And then followed it up with the ‘Homes for Ukraine’ scheme, through which it aimed to incentivize UK citizens by paying them £350 a month to host a Ukrainian individual or family to stay with them rent-free for at least six months. Refugees under the scheme will be able to live and work in the UK for up to three years with access to healthcare, social welfare, and schools. However, the entire process has been plagued by inexplicable delays and unwanted complications. UK’s Home Secretary, Priti Patel, ended up apologizing for the delays, as the Home Office reported just 12,000 Ukrainians had reached Britain under the two visa schemes by the first week of April.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has created not only an immediate humanitarian crisis, but also a threat to the very fabric of future global food security in the form of rising prices and decreased production capabilities. Ukraine grows enough food to feed 400 million people on planet Earth. Ukraine and Russia collectively account for 30% of the global wheat supply, 20% of the corn supply and 70 – 80% of the sunflower oil supply. And a disruption of this food chain will perhaps have impacts lasting longer than currently envisaged.
As the conflict grinds on, several countries in the EU will have to face the consequences at multiple levels. Smaller countries like Moldova and Slovakia can only host a small fraction of refugees. Poland is already bursting at its seems with the numbers, as it struggles to keep pace with volunteers starting to drift away, returning to work or college. Countries like the UK will need to rev up their efforts and absorb more refugees, given that a huge chunk will get re-distributed across the EU. The multi-country, inter-agency regional refugee response including the UN, NGOs, and other relevant partners that is being carried out, will have to sustain the test of consistency, while the immigration systems of several countries will need to rise up to the occasion and absorb more.
(Map data sourced from UNHCR datasets, updated 16 Apr 2022)
Author: Prithwijeet Mukherjee
Sr. Consultant, Strategy Consulting
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